Near Trail COVID

We've heard plenty about staying away from the trail due to COVID this coming hiking season. Yet, no one has published any solid information as to why. The following looks at near trail COVID cases, meaning within ~6 miles either side of the Pacific Crest Trail. Data is from January 15th 2021.

Hikers only occassionally stray further than 6 miles off the trail to resupply. As shown, the vast majority of these near trail counties are hardly touched by COVID. Further, many of these towns have well travled roads that bring many, many more visitors than what the hiking community represents. Given the information below, we find it difficult to believe that hikers will have any siginificant negative impact on trail communities. To the contrary, their business and presence will be welcomed.

	Entire County		Near Trail
County	Cases	Deaths	Cases	Deaths	Start Mile	End Mile
San Diego	204173	2005	11083.972	108.846	0.00	130.00
Riverside	231684	2399	3824.430	39.601	130.01	222.09
San Bernardino	243379	1560	5068.400	32.487	222.09	358.14
Los Angeles	954652	13234	51800.315	718.089	358.15	515.28
Kern	77070	551	992.421	7.095	515.28	669.06
Inyo	790	27	0.215	0.007	669.06	741.70
Tulare	39565	494	30.123	0.376	669.11	780.13
Fresno	79033	904	4.774	0.055	780.14	900.41
Madera	12742	130	8.695	0.089	900.42	923.70
Mono	1020	4	5.876	0.023	923.71	1020.58
Tuolumne	3215	36	4.068	0.046	928.84	1016.31
El Dorado	7321	39	179.983	0.959	1079.42	1117.88
Placer	16488	172	231.572	2.416	1117.89	1152.17
Nevada	3075	71	83.676	1.932	1152.18	1174.39
Sierra	35	0	0.831	0.000	1174.40	1232.08
Plumas	496	5	4.226	0.043	1212.17	1353.00
Butte	9127	120	39.167	0.515	1299.46	1313.32
Tehama	3664	42	9.155	0.105	1313.97	1339.90
Shasta	9334	111	109.694	1.304	1353.00	1514.32
Siskiyou	1108	12	40.618	0.440	1514.32	1698.13
Trinity	261	4	0.876	0.013	1527.67	1581.48
Jackson	6806	82	198.868	2.396	1698.14	1781.25
Klamath	2366	34	6.865	0.099	1763.78	1922.06
Douglas	1650	43	1.864	0.049	1854.45	1895.05
Lane	8127	107	13.793	0.182	1900.10	1993.65
Deschutes	4846	33	11.981	0.082	1922.07	1999.65
Linn	3065	42	6.367	0.087	1995.39	2039.48
Jefferson	1675	25	4.905	0.073	2013.92	2055.59
Marion	15972	233	13.792	0.201	2039.48	2062.49
Clackamas	11499	135	113.667	1.334	2062.49	2126.06
Wasco	1051	23	3.673	0.080	2065.29	2099.61
Hood River	935	21	23.597	0.530	2099.62	2157.60
Multnomah	28030	454	202.350	3.277	2128.26	2133.55
Skamania	221	1	18.990	0.086	2157.61	2256.18
Yakima	22529	344	69.132	1.056	2256.18	2358.16
Lewis	2879	34	12.217	0.144	2269.41	2325.48
Pierce	30193	411	136.796	1.862	2326.97	2359.30
King	71646	1144	1021.892	16.317	2359.31	2479.05
Kittitas	1933	30	59.511	0.924	2359.71	2457.06
Chelan	5347	42	14.362	0.113	2467.16	2594.51
Snohomish	25698	440	8.912	0.153	2486.32	2557.75
Skagit	3750	46	6.412	0.079	2594.51	2602.98
Okanogan	1918	30	2.278	0.036	2598.27	2650.00
Whatcom	4594	56	3.649	0.044	2612.75	2646.52
Lassen	4673	13	0.099	0.000	No near-trail urban areas
Josephine	1689	31	0.003	0.000	No near-trail urban areas
Mariposa	302	4	0.019	0.000	No near-trail urban areas
Amador	2940	29	5.554	0.055	No near-trail urban areas

How is this done? A = total county urban area, a = county urban area within the 12 mile swath. S = a/A, gives us a percent, S * total county cases = near trail cases, S * total county deaths = near trail deaths.

Near Trail COVID-19 Stats