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Moderate/Strong El Nino Occurring

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Moderate/Strong El Nino Occurring

Postby postholer » Fri Jun 12, 2015 7:43 am

A moderate to strong El Nino is now occurring and has an 85-90% chance of continuing to ramp up into the winter.

In fact, this event has a very good chance of being the strongest since 1997-98. The confidence in the models is high as the conditions that cause an El Nino are so well in sync.

While an El Nino has very little impact in the summer, this El Nino is being blamed for contributing to the exceptional rainfall in the south-central states last month.

Read Bob Hensons' excellent article over at weatherunderground:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=3015

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Re: Moderate/Strong El Nino Occurring

Postby postholer » Sun Jul 12, 2015 8:09 am

"There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last into early spring 2016."

"Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with many multi-model averages predicting a strong event at its peak strength."

That is the latest, as of July 9th, from the folks at CPC

For the later period, Feb-Mar-Apr of 2016, there is a 81% chance of El Nino, a 17% chance of neutral conditions and a 2% chance of La Nina.

What effect will this have on California's drought? Here's what Bernie Rayno at AccuWeather says:

"Current rain deficits are way too large. Even if California receives the rain that fell in 1997-98, it will not come close to ending the long-term drought."

Even a strong El Nino is no guarantee of an intense California winter, but it does add to the chances of making it an interesting one.

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