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How long does it take? What are my chances?

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How long does it take? What are my chances?

Postby postholer » Fri Mar 01, 2013 4:26 pm

How long does a PCT through hike take? What are my chances? Here's a peek at those numbers using hundreds of hikers over a 5 year period.

The short answer? It will take 152 days and you have a 37% chance of success. Here's an aggregated trip of hundreds of hikers. Note, zeros days are included. Several locations are very popular for multiple zero days. So if the days between locations seem odd, that's why.

Code: Select all
Location                          Day  AvgArrival      45 Day Arrival Window
Campo                               1  Apr 25          Apr 06/May 21
Lake Morena                         1  Apr 25          Apr 08/May 20
Mt Laguna                           3  Apr 26          Apr 07/May 21
Warner Springs                      7  Apr 30          Apr 09/May 23
Idylwild                           12  May 06          Apr 12/May 28
Big Bear                           18  May 12          Apr 19/May 28
Cajon Pass                         23  May 17          May 03/May 28
Wrightwood                         26  May 19          May 03/Jun 10
Agua Dulce                         28  May 22          Apr 26/Jun 11
Tehachapi/Mojave                   37  May 31          May 07/Jun 22
Walker Pass                        40  Jun 02          May 07/Jun 21
Kennedy Meadow                     47  Jun 10          May 21/Jun 30
Lone Pine/Independence             53  Jun 15          May 16/Jul 01
Vermilion Valley Resort            64  Jun 26          Jun 06/Jul 16
Reds Meadow                        63  Jun 26          Jun 10/Jul 09
Tuolumne Meadow                    67  Jun 30          Jun 12/Jul 12
Sonora Pass                        72  Jul 05          Jun 12/Jul 18
Echo Lake/Lake Tahoe               76  Jul 08          Jun 16/Jul 29
Sierra City                        84  Jul 17          Jun 24/Aug 06
Burney Falls                       89  Jul 21          Jun 28/Aug 08
Castle Crags/Castella/Dunsmuir     91  Jul 24          Jul 05/Aug 11
Etna                              101  Aug 03          Jul 08/Aug 23
Seiad Valley                      100  Aug 02          Jul 13/Aug 20
Ashland/Callahans                 106  Aug 08          Jul 17/Aug 31
Crater Lake                       109  Aug 11          Jul 22/Aug 29
Sisters                           117  Aug 19          Jul 25/Sep 04
Cascade Locks                     123  Aug 24          Jul 31/Sep 11
White Pass                        134  Sep 05          Aug 11/Sep 25
Snoqualmie Pass                   140  Sep 11          Aug 20/Oct 05
Stevens Pass                      141  Sep 11          Aug 21/Sep 29
Stehekin                          145  Sep 15          Aug 21/Oct 05
Canada                            152  Sep 23          Sep 02/Oct 09


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